The Golden Boot forerunners
FIFA spotlights the 10 favourites to finish as top goalscorer at the World Cup 2026.
More goals than ever before are guaranteed. The 23rd FIFA World Cup™, indeed, will feature 40 more matches than any previous edition. One thing that’s far from a given is which player will score more times than any other. FIFA looks at the 10 men with the shortest odds to seize the adidas Golden Boot.
England 78 goals in 112 internationals 8 goals in 11 World Cup games Group L opponents: Croatia, Ghana, Panama
Could Kane become the first man in history to win the Golden Boot twice? His argument is compelling. The 32-year-old has averaged more than a goal per Bundesliga game since joining Bayern Munich in 2023, and is fresh from his fifth calendar year from the last nine in which he’s scored at least as many times as he’s played England matches. Kane will also benefit from being supplied bullets by the likes of Jude Bellingham, Eberechi Eze, Phil Foden, Marcus Rashford and Bukayo Saka.
France 55 goals in 94 internationals 12 goals in 14 World Cup games Group I opponents: Senegal, Path 2 winners, Norway
If Thierry Henry and Olivier Giroud were 30 and 36 respectively when they became France’s all-time leading marksman, Mbappe seems all but sure to do it at only 27. As well as netting 38 times in his last 45 outings for Les Bleus, the electric attacker averaged almost a goal per game at Paris Saint-Germain and is doing the same at Real Madrid. Back-to-back World Cup Golden Boots, with elite creators such as Rayan Cherki, Ousmane Dembele, Desire Doue and Michael Olise to feed him, is within Mbappe’s reach.
Argentina 115 goals in 196 internationals 13 goals in 26 World Cup games Group J opponents: Algeria, Austria, Jordan
One of the most magnificent marksmen in football history will turn 39 during the global finals, but he’s still scoring for fun. Messi has struck 34 times in his last 35 matches for Argentina, and continues to rewrite goalscoring records with Inter Miami. Curiously, the competition’s Golden Boot is one of few prizes to have eluded Messi, who is one of only two men to score more than six times in one edition and not win it.
Norway 55 goals in 48 internationals 0 World Cup games Group I opponents: Path 2 winners, Senegal, France
Haaland’s figures are otherworldly. In October, he became only the sixth footballer in history – and first in 53 years – to reach 50 international goals in fewer than 50 caps. The hulking striker also scores with military regularity for Manchester City. Norway were drawn into an examining section but Haaland, with Oscar Bobb, Antonio Nusa and Martin Odegaard serving him, can score against anyone.
Germany 4 goals in 8 internationals 0 World Cup games Group E opponents: Curaçao, Côte d’Ivoire and Ecuador
Germany hadn’t had a sterling spearhead since Miroslav Klose’s retirement. Suddenly, they found a 6ft 6ins answer who would fill any void. Woltemade, imperial aerially and boasting nimble feet for a big man, has netted four goals in his last three internationals and impressed for Newcastle United. Julian Nagelsmann is likely to charge the likes of Karim Adeyemi, Serge Gnabry, Joshua Kimmich and Florian Wirtz with feeding the 23-year-old.
Portugal 143 goals in 226 internationals 8 goals in 22 World Cup games Group K opponents: Path 1 winners, Uzbekistan, Colombia
International football’s all-time leading marksman is still firing on all cylinders. The 40-year-old continues to rewrite scoring mileposts at Al Nassr and has registered 25 goals in his last 30 Portugal appearances. Ronaldo struggled for minutes following a fall-out with coach Fernando Santos at Qatar 2022, but he’s getting plenty of them under Roberto Martinez. With Francisco Conceicao, Bruno Fernandes, Rafael Leao, Pedro Neto and Bernardo Silva working their magic behind him, Ronaldo will back himself to beat his best World Cup return: four goals set at Russia 2018.
Brazil 8 goals in 45 internationals 1 goal in 4 World Cup games Group C opponents: Morocco, Haiti, Scotland
The 25-year-old is, given his position and comparatively inferior scoring record to others, a surprise candidate. Vinicius did nevertheless break the 20-goal mark for Real Madrid in each of the past four seasons and has netted thrice this year for Brazil.
Spain 6 goals in 23 internationals 0 World Cup games Group H opponents: Cabo Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay
The winger, who will be only six days past his 19th birthday when the next World Cup concludes, could smash the record for the World Cup’s youngest Golden Boot winner. It belongs to James Rodriguez, who was one day past his 23rd birthday when he triumphed in 2014. Yamal is most esteemed as a creator, but his long-range curlers are deadly and he bagged 18 goals for Barcelona in 2024/25.
France 7 goals in 57 internationals 0 goals in 11 World Cup games Group I opponents: Senegal, Path 2 winners, Norway
How is someone with the above statistics among the frontrunners? Because Dembele has, at club level, evolved from an electrifying winger into a devastating striker, scoring 35 times in 53 run-outs for Paris Saint-Germain in 2024/25. With the untouchable Mbappe operating through the centre for France, however, Dembele is likely to be stationed out wide.
Argentina 36 goals in 75 internationals 0 goals in 6 World Cup games Group J opponents: Algeria, Austria, Jordan
‘The Bull’ lost his place in Lionel Scaloni’s starting XI to Julian Alvarez during Qatar 2022, but he got the only goal in the final – and finished as the top scorer – at last year’s Copa America. Martinez has averaged a goal every two appearances since joining Inter Milan in 2018, and netted 14 times in his last 18 matches for Argentina. Messi’s exceptional invention and a navigable group stage will also hike the 28-year-old’s Golden Boot hopes.
1930: Guillermo Stabile (8 goals) 1934: Oldrich Nejedly (5) 1938: Leonidas (7) 1950: Ademir de Menezes (9) 1954: Sandor Kocsis (11) 1958: Just Fontaine (13) 1962: Florian Albert, Garrincha, Valentin Ivanov, Drazen Jerkovic, Leonel Sanchez & Vava (4) 1966: Eusebio (9) 1970: Gerd Muller (10) 1974: Grzegorz Lato (7) 1978: Mario Kempes (6) 1982: Paolo Rossi (6) 1986: Gary Lineker (6) 1990: Toto Schillaci (6) 1994: Oleg Salenko & Hristo Stoichkov (6) 1998: Davor Suker (6) 2002: Ronaldo (8) 2006: Miroslav Klose (5) 2010: Thomas Muller, Wesley Sneijder & David Villa (5) 2014: James Rodriguez (6) 2018: Harry Kane (6) 2022: Kylian Mbappe (8)